高端化发展成为“十三五”聚烯烃产业升级重点方向

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高端化发展成为“十三五”聚烯烃产业升级重点方向

聚烯烃（Polyolefin, PO）是以乙烯、丙烯或高级烯烃的聚合物，是产量最大、应用最为广泛的高分子材料，其中以聚乙烯（PE）和聚丙烯（PP）最为重要。

亚化咨询认为，“十三五”期间，随着煤（甲醇）制烯烃（CTO/MTO）和丙烷脱氢（PDH）路线的快速发展，我国聚烯烃产能和产量将继续增长，自给率不断提高，多元化竞争进一步加剧；但同时由于国内高端聚烯烃产品供应不足，严重依赖于进口，因此，聚烯烃产品高端化发展，实现进口替代，将是我国聚烯烃产业升级的重点方向。

1. 我国聚乙烯供需现状

亚化咨询数据显示，截至2016年底，中国聚乙烯产能达到约1700万吨/年，新增产能约150万吨/年，全部来自于CTO/MTO项目。2016年，中国聚乙烯表观消费量约2400万吨，产量约1400万吨，净进口量高达近1000万吨。聚乙烯的主要消费领域集中在薄膜、注塑、吹塑和管材。

2007-2016年，中国聚乙烯产量和消费量年均增长率超过了8%，自给率由最低的50%多提高到了60%以上。


2. 中国聚丙烯供需现状

亚化咨询数据显示，截至2016年底，中国聚丙烯产能达到约2200万吨/年，新增产能约350万吨/年，主要来自于MTO和PDH路线。2016年，中国聚丙烯表观消费量约2100万吨，产量约1800万吨，净进口量近300万吨。聚丙烯消费领域主要集中在编织制品、注塑和BOPP。

2007-2016年，中国聚丙烯表观消费量年均增长率超过了8%，而产量的年均增长率则超过了10%。由于中国聚丙烯产量增长速度快于消费量增速，自给率基本呈逐年上升趋势。


3. 中国聚烯烃供需展望



截至2016年底，中国聚烯烃（PE/PP）总产能约3900万吨/年，但供需缺口近1300万吨。“十三五”期间，随着惠炼二期、古雷石化、中化泉州、浙江石化（一期）、恒力石化等大型炼化一体化项目的建成，以及CTO/MTO、乙烷裂解制乙烯、PDH等路线的快速发展，预计到2020年中国聚烯烃总产能将达到4600万吨/年，其中1650万吨/年将为煤（甲醇）基制聚烯烃。

“十三五”期间，随着中国城镇化、农业现代化发展，以及在轨道交通、汽车轻量化、医疗器械、电子电器等行业应用更加广泛，中国聚烯烃消费量将持续增长，预计2020年中国聚烯烃需求量将近5000万吨，供需缺口仍有近400万吨。

4. 高端化成聚烯烃行业发展重点

当前，中国聚烯烃行业结构性矛盾突出。一方面，中国聚烯烃产品以中低端通用料为主，市场竞争激励；另一方面，高端聚烯烃产品严重依赖于进口，当前自给率不足三成。

亚化咨询认为，“十三五”期间，中国聚烯烃产业升级需要注重高端化、差异化、多元化产品开发的技术创新。加大茂金属聚烯烃弹性体、双峰聚烯烃、超高分子量聚乙烯等高端聚烯烃产品的开发和市场推广力度，提高聚丙烯管材专用料、电容膜专用料、聚乙烯汽车油箱专用料、燃气管道专用料、汽车保险杠专用料等高端料、专用料的生产比例，从而提升我国聚烯烃产业的竞争力。



由亚化咨询主办的第二届中国高端聚烯烃技术与市场研讨会将于2017年6月29-30日在苏州召开。将探讨全球与中国高端聚烯烃下游应用与市场趋势；未来不同原料高端聚烯烃项目规划；高性能专用化与功能化聚烯烃；改性塑料及塑料合金；茂金属聚烯烃开发与应用；高碳α-烯烃共聚单体生产工艺进展；聚烯烃弹性体的技术与商业化；高端聚烯烃催化剂与工艺；高端聚烯烃在新兴下游应用领域的市场潜力等。会议还将安排参观工业考察参观。

会议主题
1.        全球与中国高端聚烯烃下游应用与市场趋势
2.        未来不同原料高端聚烯烃项目规划：CTO/PDH/炼化一体化
3.        高性能专用化与功能化聚烯烃
4.        改性塑料及塑料合金
5.        茂金属聚烯烃开发与应用
6.        高碳α-烯烃共聚单体生产工艺进展
7.        聚烯烃弹性体的技术与商业化
8.        双峰聚烯烃工艺与应用
9.        超高分子量聚乙烯开发与应用
10.        高端聚烯烃催化剂及工艺
11.        工业考察参观









由于日期临近，如有意向参会或者赞助，欢迎您和我们联系。负责人：孔小姐 021-68726606-102 / 13918486381 或Email至kyq@chemweekly.com  

  



High-end Development Becomes the Key Direction of Polyolefin Industry Upgrading in 13th FYP

Polyolefin (PO), polymers of ethylene, propylene or higher olefins, is the largest output and most widely used polymer materials, and polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) are most important ones.

ASIACHEM believes that, in 13th FYP, with the rapid development of coal (methanol) to olefins (CTO/MTO) and propane dehydrogenation (PDH), capacity and production of polyolefin in China will continues to increase, with continuous improvement of self-sufficiency rate and fiercer diversified competition; however, high-end polyolefin products in China face with a shortage of supplies, and heavily dependent on imports. Therefore, high-end development of polyolefin products, to achieve import substitution, will be the key direction of China’s polyolefin industry upgrading.

1. China’s PE Supply & Demand Situation

ASIACHEM’s data shows that, by the end of 2016, China’s PE capacity has reached about 17Mt/a, with newly added capacity of about 1.5Mt/a, all from CTO/MTO projects. In 2016, the apparent consumption and production of PE in China were about 24Mt and 14Mt, respectively, while the net import of PE was as high as 10Mt. The main consumption areas of PE include film, injection molding, blow molding and pipe.

In 2007-2016, the average annual growth rates of PE production and consumption in China exceeded 8%, and the self-sufficiency rate of PE has increased from about 50% to over 60%.


2. China’s PP Supply & Demand Situation

ASIACHEM’s data shows that, by the end of 2016, China’s PP capacity has reached about 22Mt/a, with newly added capacity of about 3.5Mt/a, mainly from MTO and PDH projects. In 2016, the apparent consumption and production of PP in China were about 21Mt and 18Mt, respectively, while the net import of PP was as high as 3Mt. The main consumption areas of PP include woven articles, injection molding and BOPP.

In 2007-2016, the average annual growth rate of PP consumption in China exceeded 8%, while average annual growth rate of PP production exceeded 10%. Due to the faster increase in production than consumption, the self-sufficiency rate of PP basically increased annually.


3. China’s Polyolefin Supply & Demand Outlook



By the end of 2016, the total capacity of polyolefin (PE/PP) in China was about 39Mt/a, with the gap between supply and demand of about 13Mt. During 13th FYP, with the construction of several large-scale refining & chemical integration projects such as CNOOC Huizhou Refining Phase II, Gulei Petrochemical, SinoChem Quanzhou, Zhejiang Petrochemical (Phase I), Hengli Petrochemical, etc., as well as the rapid development of CTO/MTO, ethane cracking to ethylene, PDH, etc., it’s predicted that the total capacity of polyolefin in China in 2020 will be 46Mt/a, including 16.5Mt/a coal (methanol) based polyolefin.

During 13th FYP, due to the development of urbanization, agricultural modernization, and the wider application in fields such as rail transit, automotive lightweight, medical apparatuses, electronic appliances, the polyolefin consumption in China will continue to increase. It’s predicted that polyolefin consumption will be about 50Mt, with the gap between supply and demand of about 4Mt.

4. High-end Development Becomes Key Direction of Polyolefin Industry

Currently, the structural contradictions are conspicuous in China’s polyolefin industry. On one hand, polyolefin products in China are mainly dominated by middle and low general commodities, with fiercely competitive market; on the other hand, the high-end polyolefin products in China are in desperately short supply, with current self-sufficiency rate less than 30%.

ASIACHEM believes that, in 13th FYP, the upgrading of China’s polyolefin industry shall pay attention to technological innovation in the development of high-end, differentiated and diversified products. It’s necessary to strengthen development and market promotion of high-end polyolefin products such as metallocene polyolefin elastomer, bimodal polyolefin, UHMWPE, etc., and to increase the production ratio of high-end & special grades, such as PP pipe, capacitor film, PE fuel tank, gas pipe, bumper, which can thereby improve the competitiveness of China’s polyolefin industry.



The 2nd High-End Polyolefin Technologies & Market Conference 2017 will be organized by ASIACHEM on Jun 29-30 2017 in Suzhou. The upcoming conference will discuss downstream application & market trend of global & China’s high-end polyolefin; future planning of feedstock diversification high-end polyolefin projects; high performance specialized & functionalized polyolefin; modified plastics & plastic alloys; development & application of metallocene polyolefin; progress of high carbonα-olefin comonomers production process; R&D and industrialization of polyolefin elastomer (POE); high-end polyolefin catalysts & processes; market potential of new downstream applications, etc. Besides, an industrial visiting will be arranged.

Topics

1. Downstream application & market trend of global & China’s high-end polyolefin
2. Future planning of feedstock diversification high-end polyolefin projects: CTO/PDH/ refining-chemical integration
3. High performance specialized & functionalized polyolefin
4. Modified plastics & plastic alloys
5. Development & application of metallocene polyolefin
6. Progress of high carbonα-olefin comonomers production process
7. R&D and industrialization of polyolefin elastomer (POE)
8. Bimodal polyolefin process & application
9. Development & application of UHMWPE
10. High-end polyolefin catalysts & processes
11. Industrial visiting

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